Fri, Mar 6, 2020·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 118 | 25 | 09 | 332 |
| VAN | 27 | 210 | 28 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22VANTroy StecherAssists: J.T. Miller, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:29VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 13:17COLErik JohnsonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 2:12VANZack MacEwenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 3:23COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 8:04COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 12:17VANAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Oscar Fantenberg · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 16:43VANZack MacEwenAssists: Antoine Roussel, Adam Gaudette · Snap, 0.24 xG3–5
- P3 17:24VANTanner PearsonENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:40VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:16VANTyler Myers: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:16COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:39COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:38COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:26COLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 6:33VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P3 10:42COLVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:42VANChris Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:36VANZack MacEwen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Bellemare – O'Connor2:26
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Namestnikov – MacKinnon12:17
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Jost8:20
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
- Nieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:52
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Girard6:30
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard8:08
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Barberio – Connauton8:34
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Gaudette – MacEwen5:29
xG 0.60–0.13 (83%)attempts 6–7goals 3–1
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat10:14
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Miller – Pettersson11:01
xG 0.36–0.86 (30%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Sutter – Motte – Virtanen6:44
xG 0.30–1.02 (23%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Hughes8:52
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Myers – Fantenberg6:17
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev6:50
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).