Sat, Mar 7, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 3, Los Angeles Kings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 18 | 212 | 328 |
| LAK | 110 | 213 | 412 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 0:12MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:36LAKBlake LizotteSHAssists: Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:29LAKTrevor MooreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 4:00LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Ben Hutton, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 5:33MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 15:35MINLuke KuninAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jordan Greenway · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 17:47LAKDustin BrownAssists: Alex Iafallo, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 18:46LAKDustin BrownENAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
- P3 19:00LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Kurtis MacDermid · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:41LAKBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:19LAKTrevor Moore: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:48MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09LAKAlex Iafallo: Holding2 min
- P3 1:31MINKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:57MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek4:19
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk6:13
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato7:01
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Parise – Fiala – Kunin7:34
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Dumba2:00
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:40
xG 0.96–0.76 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Hunt – Dumba2:02
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFrk – Moore – Vilardi4:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lewis – Kempe – Lizotte5:29
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:44
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Prokhorkin – Amadio – Wagner5:56
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Hutton13:58
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Roy – Anderson15:29
xG 0.54–0.82 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).