Sat, Mar 7, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 014 | 112 | 134 |
| FLA | 013 | 19 | 310 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:22FLALucas WallmarkAssists: Noel Acciari, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 0:41FLAMacKenzie WeegarGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Frank Vatrano · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 4:13FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Erik Haula, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 8:04MTLJake EvansUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:06FLAMike HoffmanENUnassisted · Slap, 0.49 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:10MTLChristian Folin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07MTLMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:39FLADominic Toninato: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:29FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:39MTLCharles Hudon: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Weal – Domi5:05
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Weise – Evans – Vejdemo8:24
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Lehkonen7:44
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Weal – Lehkonen – Domi4:24
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Folin12:09
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Petry – Kulak14:38
xG 1.28–0.77 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot15:13
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano9:21
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Connolly – Toninato – Wallmark7:04
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Haula – Huberdeau11:29
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad9:15
xG 0.86–0.58 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ekblad2:04
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stralman4:00
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).