Sat, Mar 7, 2020·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 114 | 010 | 013 | 11 | 238 |
| SJS | 116 | 09 | 05 | 02 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33OTTNick PaulAssists: Anthony Duclair, Jayce Hawryluk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 19:49SJSEvander KaneAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- OT 0:35OTTChris TierneyGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:41OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:11OTTJayce Hawryluk: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:32OTTBobby Ryan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:28SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Holding2 min
- P2 19:58SJSRadim Simek: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Paul – Hawryluk6:50
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Boedker – Peca – Sabourin5:30
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Balcers5:43
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – White – Tkachuk7:40
xG 0.16–1.20 (12%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Chabot7:35
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Wolanin3:02
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev8:24
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Meier8:27
xG 1.47–0.69 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Labanc – True – Suomela4:57
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Noesen – Karlsson – Kellman7:47
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Gambrell7:35
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Knyzhov2:29
xG 1.42–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Simek – Knyzhov3:09
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Davidson3:01
xG 0.33–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).