Sat, Mar 7, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 021 | 09 | 116 | 146 |
| EDM | 17 | 06 | 311 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Jujhar Khaira, James Neal · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 15:29EDMCaleb JonesGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 16:25EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zack Kassian, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 19:01CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 19:30EDMRiley SheahanENAssists: Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:00EDMJujhar Khaira: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:37EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:06CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Kneeing2 min
- P3 18:07EDMJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:25CBJKevin Stenlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Dubois – Bemstrom14:57
xG 1.57–1.00 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 0–2
- Foligno – Nyquist – Jenner11:44
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Matteau – Shore – Lilja5:43
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Stenlund – Robinson8:46
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Nutivaara19:25
xG 1.33–0.59 (69%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov16:31
xG 1.25–0.60 (68%)attempts 17–15goals 0–3
- Harrington – Peeke11:36
xG 0.81–0.55 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Neal – Chiasson – Khaira9:02
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Ennis – Draisaitl – Yamamoto16:27
xG 0.88–0.89 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Athanasiou8:27
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:15
xG 0.68–1.32 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Nurse – Bear18:36
xG 0.96–0.96 (50%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Russell – Jones12:22
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:18
xG 0.54–1.18 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).