Sun, Mar 8, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 214 | 312 | 636 |
| PIT | 210 | 010 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19PITPatrick MarleauAssists: Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:52CARMorgan GeekieAssists: Jake Gardiner, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 16:33PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:07CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Jordan Martinook, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 18:04CARJake GardinerPPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 8:30CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Haydn Fleury, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 15:02CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Jordan Staal, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 16:19CARMorgan GeekieAssists: Jordan Martinook, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.31 xG6–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P1 1:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:21CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:32PITTeddy Blueger: Holding2 min
- P1 14:34CARMorgan Geekie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:12CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:23CARWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30CARVincent Trocheck: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:43PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P2 17:22PITEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34CARWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – McGinn7:51
xG 0.71–0.03 (97%)attempts 17–2goals 2–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov12:31
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Geekie5:17
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Foegele – Necas2:46
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Fleury11:44
xG 1.04–0.32 (77%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Slavin11:43
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk12:03
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Blueger – Rodrigues – Tanev9:06
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – McCann5:31
xG 0.10–0.17 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Sheary10:24
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Marleau – Malkin – Rust10:33
xG 0.28–0.89 (24%)attempts 5–19goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Letang – Dumoulin12:50
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Johnson – Schultz10:06
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 1–2
- Pettersson – Marino12:22
xG 0.38–0.75 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).