Sun, Mar 8, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 113 | 210 | 532 |
| CGY | 011 | 26 | 15 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24VGKTomas NosekAssists: Ryan Reaves, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:49VGKNick HoldenAssists: Nick Cousins, Brandon Pirri · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 3:39VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: William Karlsson, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 8:23CGYMilan LucicUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 16:32CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:00CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 18:50VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 19:42VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 2:42CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00VGKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Karlsson – Roy14:05
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Pirri – Cousins – Stephenson12:19
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:17
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault14:30
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Whitecloud13:36
xG 1.18–0.19 (86%)attempts 21–7goals 2–1
- Martinez – Theodore21:33
xG 0.75–0.54 (58%)attempts 22–17goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt20:36
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube2:14
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk14:19
xG 0.93–1.01 (48%)attempts 15–22goals 1–2
- Rinaldo – Jankowski – Bennett2:13
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan16:34
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson4:40
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Andersson2:29
xG 0.05–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Brodie – Andersson5:45
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).