Sun, Mar 8, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 06 | 211 | 12 | 530 |
| ANA | 16 | 26 | 113 | 01 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:18ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jacob Larsson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:02MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:33MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 11:52ANADanton HeinenAssists: Sonny Milano, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:55ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 1:49MINVictor RaskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 14:20MINAlex GalchenyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:18ANAChristian DjoosAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 4:01MINKevin FialaPPGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:47MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P1 12:02ANADavid Backes: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54MINJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:54ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:36MINAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22MINMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- OT 3:55ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Hartman – Donato8:35
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk10:18
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Rask – Greenway – Kunin7:57
xG 0.37–0.54 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Parise – Fiala – Eriksson Ek11:47
xG 0.53–0.87 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin2:50
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Hunt8:09
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon18:38
xG 0.87–1.02 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Rakell10:53
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Steel – Jones – Sherwood12:35
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Backes – Deslauriers – Rowney7:03
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Milano – Heinen11:49
xG 0.66–0.60 (53%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Manson18:08
xG 0.92–0.39 (70%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Djoos15:02
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Larsson13:14
xG 0.53–0.74 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).