Mon, Mar 9, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 08 | 216 | 02 | 1 | 235 |
| BUF | 18 | 19 | 05 | 04 | 2 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Marcus Johansson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:53BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 3:33WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 13:11WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. WSH Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 5. BUF Victor Olofsson stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 7. BUF Rasmus Dahlin scored
- 8. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 9. BUF Jimmy Vesey stopped
- 10. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 11. BUF Marcus Johansson stopped
- 12. WSH Jakub Vrana stopped
- 13. BUF Dominik Kahun scored
- 14. WSH Richard Panik stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:43BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:18WSHBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:17WSHRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:10WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Hagelin – Eller9:29
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana10:26
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Panik – Dowd – Hathaway9:11
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson16:00
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov2:14
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Dillon11:59
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – Kempny7:05
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons13:04
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel16:19
xG 0.46–0.58 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Vesey – Lazar9:38
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Johansson – Olofsson – Kahun10:33
xG 0.17–0.73 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Montour21:50
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- McCabe – Jokiharju16:36
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:25
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).