Tue, Mar 10, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 418 | 04 | 436 |
| MTL | 07 | 014 | 213 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:51NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:57NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 8:18NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 16:00NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 2:45MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 8:40MTLLukas VejdemoAssists: Dale Weise, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:49MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P1 5:00MTLXavier Ouellet: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:10NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:46MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:59MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:21NSHRyan Ellis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Sissons – Arvidsson6:33
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Sissons2:25
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Trenin4:58
xG 0.07–0.07 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Turris – Arvidsson – Trenin3:08
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis15:23
xG 0.95–0.32 (75%)attempts 16–20goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro16:04
xG 0.64–0.79 (45%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Holzer – Tinordi11:38
xG 0.17–0.69 (20%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lehkonen – Suzuki9:47
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 18–4goals 1–1
- Weise – Evans – Vejdemo6:53
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Byron – Armia – Danault9:39
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Hudon – Domi11:36
xG 0.17–0.87 (16%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Folin10:45
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Petry – Kulak14:15
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot13:39
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).