Tue, Mar 10, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 16 | 115 | 229 |
| PHI | 012 | 012 | 012 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:39BOSMatt GrzelcykPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, David Krejci · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 14:40BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:20BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:06BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P1 19:50PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:12BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P2 16:55PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:00PHIScott Laughton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Nordstrom – Lindholm6:10
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Kase5:23
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Krejci – Kuraly – Pastrnak6:02
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Kase4:06
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy15:08
xG 0.67–0.24 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Lauzon13:37
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Clifton9:47
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Pitlick – Laughton6:38
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel7:11
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier11:38
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee8:31
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Sanheim2:47
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim11:03
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg6:56
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).