Tue, Mar 10, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 114 | 114 | 242 |
| ANA | 46 | 15 | 04 | 515 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Christian Djoos · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 2:45ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Carter Rowney, David Backes · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 11:17ANANicolas DeslauriersGWGAssists: Carter Rowney, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 11:49ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 6:06OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Colin White, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 9:52ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Max Jones, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 13:46OTTColin WhiteAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:34OTTNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:11ANAAdam Henrique: Interference2 min
- P1 17:51ANAMax Jones: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:03ANARickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:27OTTMike Reilly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:30ANADavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:41ANADavid Backes: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Paul – Hawryluk9:36
xG 0.74–0.20 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Balcers9:25
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – White – Tkachuk10:07
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Boedker – Peca – Sabourin9:27
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Chabot15:09
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Reilly – Zaitsev11:24
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Englund – Wolanin14:21
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteel – Jones – Sherwood9:40
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell8:29
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Milano – Heinen8:13
xG 0.20–0.50 (28%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Deslauriers – Rowney12:03
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 2–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Manson17:29
xG 0.47–0.96 (33%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Djoos12:30
xG 0.20–0.78 (20%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Larsson17:43
xG 0.60–1.28 (32%)attempts 11–18goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).