Wed, Mar 11, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 010 | 112 | 00 | 232 |
| COL | 18 | 19 | 09 | 12 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:27COLTyson JostPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:55COLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:47NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:50COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:09COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P1 11:02NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53COLVladislav Kamenev: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:10COLTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:43NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:03NYRAdam Fox: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 4:43NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:43COLMartin Kaut: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:43NYRBrendan Smith: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:11NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:21COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 17:08NYRBrendan Lemieux: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Lemieux3:48
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin4:51
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin7:49
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- McKegg – Di Giuseppe – Gauthier3:01
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Trouba11:58
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Fox3:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo9:16
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Compher – Nichushkin11:53
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Nieto – Bellemare – Kaut9:52
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Namestnikov – Jost7:11
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar8:50
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov9:30
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar3:36
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).