Wed, Mar 11, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 08 | 18 | 226 |
| LAK | 113 | 011 | 215 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29OTTBobby RyanAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Colin White · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:09LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Adrian Kempe, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 1:57OTTJayce HawrylukAssists: Andreas Englund, Nick Paul · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 9:12LAKGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Sean Walker, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:19LAKMartin FrkGWGAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:24OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:19OTTNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:08OTTColin White: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:08LAKAustin Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:44LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:23LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:16OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:14OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Tkachuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – White – Tkachuk8:18
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Duclair – Paul – Hawryluk6:26
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Boedker – Peca – Sabourin8:44
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Balcers8:44
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev2:05
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot12:17
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Chabot – Wolanin2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFrk – Moore – Vilardi3:16
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Lewis – Kempe – Lizotte8:40
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Prokhorkin – Amadio – Wagner4:22
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:32
xG 0.79–0.89 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Hutton15:20
xG 1.17–0.83 (58%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Roy – Anderson14:48
xG 0.37–0.52 (41%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).