Wed, Jan 13, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 19 | 111 | 334 |
| PHI | 211 | 17 | 39 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12PITMark JankowskiAssists: Brandon Tanev, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.71 xG1–0
- P1 15:11PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Joel Farabee · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:52PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Joel Farabee · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 3:39PITSidney CrosbyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 18:54PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 3:01PITBrandon TanevAssists: Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 5:37PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 12:14PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 12:34PHIKevin HayesAssists: Joel Farabee, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:44PHIScott Laughton: Holding2 min
- P1 13:47PITCody Ceci: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44PITMike Matheson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:52PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23PHINolan Patrick: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:39PITJared McCann: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCann – Tanev9:28
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 12–2goals 2–1
- Sceviour – Blueger – Lafferty9:56
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Crosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues13:35
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust12:15
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino13:08
xG 0.97–0.41 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Ceci – Pettersson12:18
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin17:52
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Hayes – Farabee11:21
xG 1.24–0.34 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny12:02
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Aube-Kubel9:44
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Patrick11:24
xG 0.16–0.95 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Hagg12:33
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers16:12
xG 1.01–0.80 (56%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov14:10
xG 0.20–1.03 (17%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).