Wed, Jan 13, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 08 | 17 | 123 |
| TBL | 313 | 113 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 16:18TBLMathieu JosephGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 17:57TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Erik Cernak, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 9:56TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 6:45TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 16:36CHIDylan StromePPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:27TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:08CHICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:12TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P2 4:01CHIAdam Boqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 9:17CHIDuncan Keith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:40CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:52TBLBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Shaw – Janmark – Wallmark10:15
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf8:20
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat12:19
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Pirri – Kubalik – Suter9:35
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Zadorov2:41
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Boqvist9:10
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- de Haan – Mitchell13:24
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli7:56
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point10:50
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde13:21
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Maroon – Stephens – Volkov11:30
xG 0.06–0.39 (12%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Rutta3:15
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote5:51
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Hedman2:38
xG 0.20–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).