Wed, Jan 13, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 117 | 310 | 535 |
| EDM | 07 | 114 | 210 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:32VANBo HorvatAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:39EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 17:19VANNils HoglanderAssists: Tanner Pearson, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 0:10EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Zack Kassian, Ethan Bear · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 1:53VANAdam GaudetteAssists: Antoine Roussel, Travis Hamonic · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 3:44VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 8:18EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Caleb Jones, Dominik Kahun · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 13:46VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:39EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:53VANJake Virtanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:01VANTravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:08VANTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:45VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:11EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Hoglander10:48
xG 1.14–0.21 (84%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Roussel – Gaudette – MacEwen6:37
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Sutter – Beagle – Motte9:05
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Virtanen – Boeser – Pettersson11:55
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Schmidt12:58
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Myers – Juolevi8:04
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Edler – Hamonic2:56
xG 0.36–0.24 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun12:03
xG 0.94–0.61 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Turris – Archibald – Puljujarvi7:39
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:46
xG 0.73–0.91 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Ennis – Chiasson – Khaira6:03
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear18:50
xG 1.12–1.01 (53%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Barrie – Koekkoek12:59
xG 0.94–0.98 (49%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
- Larsson – Jones12:27
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).