Thu, Jan 14, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 015 | 03 | 130 |
| NSH | 013 | 19 | 213 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:24CBJBoone JennerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:09NSHLuke KuninAssists: Erik Haula, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 5:48NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:27NSHCalle JarnkrokENAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:33NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:05CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52NSHNick Cousins: Interference2 min
- P3 12:03CBJMax Domi: Holding2 min
- P3 15:34CBJAlexandre Texier: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Texier – Bemstrom7:57
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Nash – Robinson – Foudy7:01
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – Bjorkstrand – Dubois11:26
xG 0.37–0.27 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Domi5:54
xG 0.24–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Kukan11:32
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski18:53
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 23–19goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov15:53
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Grimaldi – Sissons7:26
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:18
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Duchene – Haula – Kunin8:53
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Richardson – Jarnkrok – Smith4:11
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning12:31
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis15:47
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro13:19
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).