Thu, Jan 14, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 313 | 06 | 07 | 00 | 326 |
| WPG | 16 | 214 | 012 | 12 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Mark Giordano · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:24WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Kyle Connor, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 11:24CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 16:28CGYElias LindholmAssists: Dillon Dube, Chris Tanev · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 0:34WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 15:04WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 1:18WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:12WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:43CGYDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:50WPGPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:15CGYSam Bennett: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:31CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:35CGYNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:35WPGPatrik Laine: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Bennett – Mangiapane4:08
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Ryan5:42
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube9:24
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Leivo – Monahan12:00
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nesterov – Välimäki10:35
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson2:46
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson13:03
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:14
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:53
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Connor – Laine11:01
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton9:48
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk13:50
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Niku10:32
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey15:08
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).