Thu, Jan 14, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 08 | 07 | 222 |
| VGK | 212 | 06 | 311 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Alec Martinez, Shea Theodore · Slap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 2:13VGKTomas NosekAssists: Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 4:22ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Sam Steel · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 7:58ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 0:49VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 10:59VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:46VGKAlex TuchENAssists: Nicolas Roy, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:33ANAJani Hakanpää: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:15VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney10:35
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Terry – Steel – Comtois11:53
xG 0.35–0.51 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell12:23
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
- Getzlaf – Heinen – Lundeström10:11
xG 0.21–0.72 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm20:02
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Fowler – Manson18:13
xG 0.63–0.83 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Larsson12:19
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:36
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:58
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Tuch – Roy – Glass7:24
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek9:14
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore11:07
xG 0.89–0.41 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore7:42
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud9:06
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).