Thu, Jan 14, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 012 | 27 | 12 | 427 |
| LAK | 17 | 214 | 012 | 01 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06MINJonas BrodinAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:57LAKJeff CarterAssists: Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 7:12LAKAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Jeff Carter, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–2
- P2 17:05LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 3:15MINVictor RaskAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 9:42MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 3:47MINKirill KaprizovGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:17MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:42LAKMark Alt: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33LAKKale Clague: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09MINKevin Fiala: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:36LAKDustin Brown: Holding2 min
- P2 10:24LAKMatt Luff: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:11MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:32LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:38MINMarcus Johansson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:00LAKOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek7:51
xG 0.83–0.25 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Kaprizov6:29
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Rask – Hartman – Sturm4:59
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Rask – Kaprizov3:42
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba12:55
xG 1.09–0.55 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Suter – Brodin3:02
xG 0.01–0.11 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin15:07
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Luff – Moore6:24
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:25
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Athanasiou – Lizotte9:20
xG 0.00–0.06 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Kempe – Wagner – Vilardi7:12
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlt – Clague9:19
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Anderson15:17
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Doughty – Maatta16:21
xG 0.47–1.02 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).