Fri, Jan 15, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 214 | 010 | 09 | 233 |
| PHI | 39 | 04 | 27 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 9:26PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Nolan Patrick, James van Riemsdyk · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 11:30PHIIvan ProvorovGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 12:59PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 13:31PITBrandon TanevAssists: Jared McCann, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 12:53PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Kevin Hayes, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 17:52PHIOskar LindblomENAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:09PITJared McCann: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:00PITChad Ruhwedel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59PHIIvan Provorov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59PHIPhilippe Myers: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:02PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:18PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07PITMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:40PITJared McCann: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:21PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min
- P3 10:47PITJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues10:23
xG 0.91–0.11 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – McCann – Tanev6:45
xG 0.51–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust10:07
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Blueger – Lafferty5:58
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino13:56
xG 1.01–0.19 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel8:27
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny3:05
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Hayes – Farabee8:42
xG 0.01–0.22 (3%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Aube-Kubel8:40
xG 0.09–0.33 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Patrick8:59
xG 0.12–0.56 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Myers2:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers12:59
xG 0.37–0.62 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov10:06
xG 0.10–0.72 (13%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).