Fri, Jan 15, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 013 | 212 | 012 | 237 |
| TBL | 010 | 317 | 210 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:25TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 4:43TBLAlex KillornAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 8:11TBLBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 14:20CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 16:11CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:32TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 17:38TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:28CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
- P2 8:11CHIDylan Strome: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:29TBLBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P3 2:09TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P3 9:50CHIDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:40TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Strome – Kurashev7:25
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf6:36
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Suter – Kurashev3:25
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter7:26
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Mitchell9:44
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–2
- de Haan – Zadorov3:54
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Boqvist9:53
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde7:50
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point10:07
xG 0.79–0.52 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli12:30
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Stephens5:59
xG 0.29–0.88 (25%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:36
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sergachev6:11
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sergachev5:25
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).