Mon, May 3, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 4, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 213 | 010 | 27 | 00 | 430 |
| FLA | 314 | 113 | 09 | 17 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Owen Tippett, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 2:42FLANikita GusevAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 12:04DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 14:13FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Owen Tippett, Grigori Denisenko · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 17:16DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 0:45FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Grigori Denisenko, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 3:55DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Tanner Kero, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 4:06DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–4
- OT 2:50FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:36FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:36DALBlake Comeau: Instigator2 min
- P1 3:36DALBlake Comeau: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:36DALBlake Comeau: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 11:21FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:56DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:29FLAAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:08DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:21DALJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:50
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov2:43
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Seguin – Kero – Gardner2:50
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Kiviranta3:39
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell9:49
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:06
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Lindell2:21
xG 0.08–0.08 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGusev – Acciari – Lomberg9:08
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Wennberg – Tippett12:49
xG 0.85–0.31 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Duclair – Barkov – Denisenko10:04
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Marchment – Heponiemi10:17
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Nutivaara18:09
xG 1.14–0.36 (76%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Yandle – Gudas11:19
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Weegar – Forsling15:46
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 18–17goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).