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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 15, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver

St. Louis Blues 0, Colorado Avalanche 8

Away

St. Louis Blues

0

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL0704010021
COL012412414838

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:03COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:24COLAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Philipp Grubauer · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 14:34COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 17:05COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
  5. P3 1:13COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.18 xG0–5
  6. P3 11:29COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–6
  7. P3 12:02COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Devon Toews, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–7
  8. P3 14:56COLDevon ToewsPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.04 xG0–8
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:48STLVince Dunn: Holding2 min
  2. P1 7:06COLJ.T. Compher: Interference2 min
  3. P1 12:21COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 14:31COLSamuel Girard: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 14:31STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 10:40STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 16:14STLJaden Schwartz: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 0:00STLKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 4:08COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 8:23COLTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 10:16STLZachary Sanford: Interference2 min · PPG
  12. P3 13:52STLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 16:39STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
46% to win54% to win
← STL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCOL
21Shots on goal38
1.3Expected goals3.3
37Shot attempts51
33Faceoffs won33
4Power plays7
16Penalty minutes10
21Hits21
7Blocked shots10
6Giveaways2
10Takeaways16

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. Bozak – Sanford – Kyrou3:37

    xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  2. Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn6:32

    xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1

  3. Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev5:10

    xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  4. Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas4:21

    xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestFaulk – Krug2:26

    xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Scandella – Parayko3:21

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  3. Parayko – Dunn3:19

    xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:37

    xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0

  2. Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky6:08

    xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  3. Calvert – Bellemare – Jost8:20

    xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

  4. Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin5:57

    xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestToews – Girard2:26

    xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0

  2. Cole – Timmins8:11

    xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0

  3. Graves – Girard11:54

    xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.3 xGSTL 1.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #813 of 868 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).