Sat, Jan 16, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 0, New York Rangers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 07 | 06 | 023 |
| NYR | 210 | 214 | 18 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12NYRPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:46NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 5:57NYRPavel BuchnevichUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 15:24NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Filip Chytil · Slap, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 15:56NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:50NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:53NYIAnders Lee: Minor2 min
- P1 16:26NYINoah Dobson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 1:08NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39NYIMathew Barzal: Interference2 min
- P2 6:33NYRKaapo Kakko: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:19NYIRoss Johnston: Holding2 min
- P2 16:46NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 1:49NYRPhillip Di Giuseppe: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:24NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:24NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:24NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:35NYIMathew Barzal: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Johnston2:57
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Barzal – Beauvillier3:16
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Johnston – Bellows3:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal6:51
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:31
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dobson2:08
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Leddy – Mayfield10:38
xG 0.24–0.41 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko6:44
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Strome – Panarin – Lafrenière8:34
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden4:43
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:53
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Miller11:12
xG 0.95–0.07 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Johnson – Fox9:27
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Trouba – Lindgren11:47
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).