Sat, Jan 16, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 115 | 013 | 116 | 244 |
| NSH | 111 | 011 | 411 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58CBJNick FolignoAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 9:44NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:43NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:47CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Liam Foudy, Michael Del Zotto · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 11:00NSHBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 14:28NSHLuke KuninAssists: Nick Cousins, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 15:22NSHColton SissonsAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:22NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:07CBJAlexandre Texier: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:47CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:27NSHMathieu Olivier: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 16:45CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Texier – Foudy11:30
xG 1.31–0.64 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Nash – Bemstrom – Robinson7:22
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – Bjorkstrand – Dubois12:48
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Atkinson – Jenner – Domi11:01
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Kukan12:44
xG 1.06–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Savard – Gavrikov17:30
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski17:41
xG 0.54–0.70 (43%)attempts 20–15goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Jarnkrok – Olivier10:16
xG 0.44–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Duchene – Cousins – Kunin8:43
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Cousins – Grimaldi – Sissons3:28
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson14:14
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:12
xG 0.60–0.42 (58%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning14:07
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Fabbro15:24
xG 0.85–1.23 (41%)attempts 15–24goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).