Sat, Jan 16, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 012 | 215 | 13 | 444 |
| LAK | 111 | 213 | 07 | 02 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21MINMathew DumbaAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:58LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Austin Wagner, Kurtis MacDermid · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–1
- P2 7:02LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:22LAKAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–3
- P3 7:38MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 19:58MINMathew DumbaAssists: Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:49MINMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:46LAKAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:51MINNick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:17MINMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min
- P2 1:51LAKJeff Carter: Interference2 min
- P2 9:40LAKGabriel Vilardi: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:40MINKevin Fiala: Interference2 min
- P2 11:49LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min
- P2 12:24MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:32LAKSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P3 1:35MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:47LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P3 8:44MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vilardi won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Johansson – Fiala4:16
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:31
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Hartman – Sturm2:47
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Rask – Kaprizov4:45
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Soucy7:18
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin14:37
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Suter – Dumba12:56
xG 0.91–1.12 (45%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Wagner – Vilardi3:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Amadio – Luff – Moore4:42
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Athanasiou – Lizotte6:45
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:25
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Maatta11:33
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Roy – Anderson10:56
xG 0.20–0.78 (20%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).