Sun, Jan 17, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 13 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 323 |
| PIT | 18 | 211 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:04WSHNic DowdUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:24WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 2:10PITColton SceviourAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 10:09WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 12:57PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Jason Zucker, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 6. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 7. PIT Jake Guentzel scored
- 8. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:57WSHNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:08PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P2 5:20WSHBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:19PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 9:04PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:39WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:21WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:57PITJared McCann: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Panik – Wilson2:45
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway6:31
xG 0.14–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Eller – Panik – Sprong7:04
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:46
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dillon10:39
xG 0.67–0.46 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Carlson – Dillon3:17
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Chara – Jensen11:37
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust12:37
xG 0.59–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues12:53
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Blueger – Lafferty2:29
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Blueger – Tanev2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson7:06
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:43
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola3:27
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).