Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 0, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 06 | 010 | 027 |
| NYI | 03 | 07 | 17 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 15:51NYIJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:25BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:40NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P2 0:53NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P2 1:43BOSNick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:53NYIJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:45BOSCraig Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:17BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:43NYIJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:43BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min
- P3 16:07BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Ritchie – Studnicka8:27
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Frederic7:02
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:17
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Smith – Coyle – Bjork7:17
xG 0.01–0.32 (3%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo8:50
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Zboril – Carlo2:59
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Zboril – McAvoy2:45
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Pageau3:17
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier7:26
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal8:47
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Pageau – Johnston – Bellows6:00
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Dobson8:02
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock9:20
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Leddy – Mayfield9:56
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).