Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 6, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 315 | 211 | 637 |
| PHI | 04 | 011 | 17 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52BUFCurtis LazarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:35BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:28BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 8:09BUFCurtis LazarAssists: Riley Sheahan, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–0
- P3 10:47BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.01 xG5–0
- P3 17:55PHINicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Michael Raffl, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 18:49BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:34BUFBrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:21PHICarter Hart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:20PHIPhilippe Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:01PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Skinner – Lazar11:06
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Hall – Reinhart – Eichel13:45
xG 0.46–0.42 (53%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Staal – Olofsson – Cozens9:58
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Thompson10:03
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin15:35
xG 1.43–0.24 (86%)attempts 25–12goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:36
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Jokiharju15:44
xG 0.25–0.85 (23%)attempts 9–20goals 2–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Hayes – Farabee8:26
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – Hayes – Konecny5:53
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Patrick – Farabee3:21
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Konecny – Frost6:37
xG 0.18–0.32 (35%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov13:22
xG 0.98–0.63 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Braun – Hagg3:10
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov6:07
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).