Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 111 | 210 | 329 |
| DET | 113 | 012 | 112 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00DETBobby RyanAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 15:11CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Boone Jenner, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 5:10CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 6:26CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Joonas Korpisalo · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 19:03DETBobby RyanAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:36DETMarc Staal: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 1:00CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P3 1:53DETBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:34CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:03CBJZach Werenski: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:03DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:03CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:03DETBobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:03CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:03DETBobby Ryan: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGrigorenko – Dubois – Bemstrom2:46
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Texier6:06
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Nash – Robinson – Foudy2:24
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Bemstrom – Robinson6:12
xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Kukan12:18
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov6:51
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Savard – Werenski9:10
xG 0.15–0.45 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:51
xG 1.23–0.34 (78%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Ryan – Rasmussen – Zadina7:27
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Filppula – Gagner – Namestnikov7:43
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Glendening – Brome8:47
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher14:54
xG 1.22–0.48 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek17:20
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Merrill – DeKeyser11:34
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).