Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 17 | 310 | 424 |
| NSH | 012 | 110 | 111 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:05CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 16:51NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Dante Fabbro · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 3:46CARVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 10:39CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 13:26NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:24CARNino NiederreiterENAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:26CARWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:45NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:44CARVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:49NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P1 19:30CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:09NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:24NSHErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:26CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:16CARWarren Foegele: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Martinook – Foegele4:12
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Foegele – Necas6:06
xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Aho – Svechnikov4:11
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Fast – Martinook – Svechnikov5:44
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin13:56
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:17
xG 0.35–0.54 (40%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Fleury10:43
xG 0.06–0.44 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:11
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Arvidsson2:29
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cousins – Grimaldi – Sissons6:50
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Jarnkrok – Olivier6:59
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis12:57
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro7:12
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Fabbro7:37
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).