Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 16 | 012 | 128 |
| TOR | 010 | 222 | 16 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:28TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 18:39TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Justin Holl, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 19:13WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Derek Forbort, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:37TORMitch MarnerENAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Justin Holl · Snap, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:03WPGKyle Connor: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:03TORJustin Holl: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:33TORZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:33WPGSami Niku: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45TORTravis Dermott: Holding2 min
- P3 1:25TORJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
- P3 14:45TORMorgan Rielly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Harkins – Appleton3:59
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins2:43
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault2:30
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Perreault – Connor4:50
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – Stanley9:25
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk15:37
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Morrissey3:05
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Vesey – Nylander8:25
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marner – Matthews8:27
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev6:49
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl10:55
xG 0.92–0.10 (90%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly15:30
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Lehtonen3:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).