Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 118 | 110 | 334 |
| EDM | 012 | 07 | 17 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54MTLAlexander RomanovAssists: Brett Kulak, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 19:49MTLShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–0
- P3 12:15MTLArtturi LehkonenSHAssists: Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 17:51EDMDevin ShoreSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:30MTLPhillip Danault: Interference2 min
- P1 15:05MTLJoel Armia: Holding2 min
- P1 16:58MTLBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:06MTLAlexander Romanov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:18EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:11EDMSlater Koekkoek: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:11MTLBrendan Gallagher: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:51EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:17MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:55EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:02MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:39EDMJoakim Nygard: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:17
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki7:32
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Armia – Kotkaniemi6:12
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans4:03
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot10:39
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Edmundson2:33
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kulak – Romanov8:24
xG 0.40–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Archibald – Shore4:37
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid8:58
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Puljujarvi – Nygard6:17
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun5:48
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Lagesson8:03
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Nurse10:24
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Russell – Barrie11:10
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).