Tue, Jan 19, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 310 | 08 | 428 |
| NYR | 07 | 222 | 121 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Miles Wood, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 2:50NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 4:13NJDJack HughesAssists: Ty Smith, Yegor Sharangovich · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 8:38NJDJack HughesUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 12:09NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 16:00NJDMiles WoodPPGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 7:00NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:02NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:56NJDMichael McLeod: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02NJDP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 11:20NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:38NYRJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03NJDJack Hughes: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:45NJDTy Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 16:36NJDNathan Bastian: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Sharangovich – Hughes8:16
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Zajac – Wood – Boqvist11:17
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Wood – Boqvist – Hughes2:18
xG 0.13–0.21 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Kuokkanen7:39
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Murray15:00
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Tennyson – Smith9:13
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Severson15:17
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Panarin – Lafrenière11:28
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko7:41
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden6:43
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:05
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Lindgren9:49
xG 0.94–0.66 (59%)attempts 19–6goals 0–2
- Fox – Lindgren3:46
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Trouba4:55
xG 0.18–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).