Tue, Jan 19, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 214 | 111 | 01 | 436 |
| FLA | 210 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Anthony Duclair · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 16:16FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.57 xG0–2
- P1 18:40CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:45FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Anthony Duclair, Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 8:05CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Lucas Wallmark · Slap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 19:10CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 6:06CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 7:17FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.33 xG4–4
- OT 2:50FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:07CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:29CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:53FLARiley Stillman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 2:31CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:33CHIRyan Carpenter: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat2:48
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Suter – Kurashev2:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Strome – Kurashev5:50
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Janmark – Wallmark3:45
xG 0.06–0.19 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist8:44
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- de Haan – Zadorov3:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Murphy3:18
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:23
xG 1.41–0.16 (90%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:05
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Connolly – Hinostroza – Acciari10:00
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen10:36
xG 0.09–0.53 (14%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad19:00
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Gudas13:09
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Stralman – Stillman13:56
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).