Tue, Jan 19, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 210 | 05 | 324 |
| LAK | 09 | 08 | 28 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07COLBrandon SaadAssists: Matt Calvert, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 14:11COLDevon ToewsPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Joonas Donskoi · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 16:06COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 7:50LAKAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mikey Anderson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 14:22LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:03LAKMikey Anderson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:00COLRyan Graves: Interference2 min
- P2 8:50LAKJeff Carter: Interference2 min
- P2 12:32LAKDustin Brown: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:57LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06LAKMatt Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:32COLJ.T. Compher: Interference2 min
- P3 3:31LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min
- P3 14:09COLNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Bellemare – Jost4:54
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Nichushkin2:33
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:58
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Calvert – Compher – Jost2:11
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:26
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard3:05
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Graves – Girard5:06
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Athanasiou – Lizotte6:08
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:52
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Moore – Iafallo4:21
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Andersson3:43
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Anderson13:17
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – Maatta16:09
xG 0.54–0.99 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).