Wed, Jan 20, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 14 | 08 | 211 | 323 |
| TOR | 08 | 012 | 16 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42EDMKailer YamamotoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 6:44TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 9:12EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 18:54EDMJosh ArchibaldENAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:24EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 7:42TORMitch Marner: Holding2 min
- P2 12:55TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:35EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:31TORJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun10:23
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Archibald – Shore7:29
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:03
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Turris – Puljujarvi – Nygard6:36
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Barrie14:34
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear16:54
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Larsson – Koekkoek15:21
xG 0.31–0.51 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews6:22
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev4:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Vesey – Nylander4:27
xG 0.02–0.01 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev3:31
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dermott6:11
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl14:52
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly17:09
xG 0.13–0.54 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).