Wed, Jan 20, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 5, Vancouver Canucks 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 312 | 211 | 06 | 1 | 536 |
| VAN | 111 | 29 | 28 | 00 | 2 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:37MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:25VANTyler MotteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:27MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 11:13VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.35 xG2–3
- P2 18:25MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 3:24VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 10:14MTLJesperi KotkaniemiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 16:19MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Jeff Petry, Joel Armia · Deflected, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 16:51VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.06 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 2. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 3. VAN J.T. Miller scored
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
- 6. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 7. VAN Bo Horvat scored
- 8. MTL Tyler Toffoli stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:18MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:44MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:06MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:49VANAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:52MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 15:02MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P3 2:06MTLJosh Anderson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Armia – Kotkaniemi9:17
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 2–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:04
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki10:56
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans8:42
xG 0.08–0.60 (11%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson14:19
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Kulak – Romanov13:55
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot16:07
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Beagle – Motte8:17
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:51
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander9:20
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette5:21
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Chatfield6:03
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Schmidt11:53
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hughes9:18
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).