Wed, Jan 20, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 116 | 111 | 15 | 332 |
| ANA | 06 | 213 | 05 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:51MINRyan HartmanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:50MINNick BoninoPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 8:58ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Carter Rowney, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 12:21ANACam FowlerAssists: Carter Rowney, Nicolas Deslauriers · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 1:53MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:35ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P1 13:08MINMathew Dumba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:24ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:34ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37MINMarcus Foligno: Delaying game2 min
- P3 11:32ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Hartman – Sturm8:04
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:44
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Rask – Kaprizov9:12
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Johansson – Fiala11:06
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy14:38
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin17:02
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Suter – Dumba13:30
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Deslauriers – Rowney9:02
xG 0.87–0.17 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Milano14:05
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Heinen7:40
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Steel – Comtois12:14
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindholm19:51
xG 0.94–0.41 (70%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Fowler – Welinski2:50
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fowler – Hakanpää13:22
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).