Thu, Jan 21, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 316 | 03 | 429 |
| OTT | 011 | 08 | 110 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Andrew Copp, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 4:22WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:05WPGAdam LowryAssists: Trevor Lewis, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
- P2 13:55WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 17:03OTTChris TierneyAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 3:00OTTAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:18OTTChris Tierney: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:35WPGAndrew Copp: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:19OTTJoshua Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:22OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:32OTTAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:46WPGJansen Harkins: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58WPGJosh Morrissey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:38WPGNathan Beaulieu: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:00WPGNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:00WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:00OTTErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:00OTTErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:00OTTThomas Chabot: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:07OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers7:35
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Appleton7:34
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor9:16
xG 0.07–0.30 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk13:09
xG 0.76–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Stanley10:08
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Heinola10:18
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Brown – Paul6:37
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stepan – Paul2:13
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Paquette – White4:01
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Stepan – Galchenyuk5:38
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev9:42
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev3:24
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Chabot10:15
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).