Thu, Jan 21, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 7, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 212 | 418 | 112 | 742 |
| VAN | 27 | 03 | 17 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Joel Armia · Snap, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 3:20VANBo HorvatAssists: Tyler Myers, Nils Hoglander · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 5:27MTLJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 7:13VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 1:13MTLTyler ToffoliSHAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 14:56MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.32 xG4–2
- P2 15:05MTLJake EvansAssists: Paul Byron, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.08 xG5–2
- P2 16:30MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Backhand, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 4:56VANBrandon SutterAssists: Tyler Myers, Brogan Rafferty · Backhand, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 18:55MTLBen ChiarotPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.04 xG7–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:55MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:42MTLBrett Kulak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 12:44VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:44MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:50VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00MTLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P2 1:43VANAdam Gaudette: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:09MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:01MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:16VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30VANJake Virtanen: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 14:42VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:32VANTyler Myers: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 19:11VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Armia – Kotkaniemi6:29
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki7:49
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans6:14
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault7:12
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov9:36
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 2–1
- Weber – Chiarot6:58
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Petry – Edmundson9:20
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson2:02
xG 0.13–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sutter – Gaudette – Hoglander3:08
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte2:55
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser4:51
xG 0.03–0.06 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Hughes2:09
xG 0.18–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Rafferty3:04
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Hughes3:20
xG 0.01–0.08 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).