Thu, Jan 21, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 010 | 04 | 226 |
| LAK | 07 | 212 | 28 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 19:15COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 3:35LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:50LAKGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Sean Walker, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 16:04LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:18LAKBlake LizotteENAssists: Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:33COLBowen Byram: Holding2 min
- P1 9:35LAKTrevor Moore: Interference2 min
- P1 11:37COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:22LAKBlake Lizotte: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:57COLTyson Jost: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36COLGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:29LAKKale Clague: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:11COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:38LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:12
xG 1.64–1.17 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Donskoi – Compher – Jost4:06
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Nichushkin8:02
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram4:10
xG 1.08–0.09 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar4:59
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram2:20
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Grundstrom – Moore8:10
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Vilardi – Andersson7:23
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo11:58
xG 0.94–1.09 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Carter – Athanasiou – Lizotte7:01
xG 0.15–0.73 (17%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Maatta3:41
xG 0.63–0.28 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Anderson4:54
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Clague7:26
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).