Fri, Jan 22, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 0, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 014 | 010 | 034 |
| DAL | 05 | 515 | 28 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:45DALJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 4:11DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 10:18DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 14:40DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 16:41DALEsa LindellSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 4:35DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–6
- P3 14:52DALJoel KivirantaPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Dickinson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:40NSHMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P1 16:04DALDenis Gurianov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:23NSHNick Cousins: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 2:15NSHBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:52DALAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
- P2 9:22NSHMatt Benning: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:44DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:03DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17NSHMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:52NSHMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:44DALTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P3 13:32NSHMark Borowiecki: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:59NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Kunin6:53
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:47
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Richardson – Trenin – Olivier3:55
xG 0.01–0.00 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Sissons5:30
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro9:44
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis10:50
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm2:53
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Kiviranta5:40
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Benn – Hintz – Gurianov5:34
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Caamano – Dellandrea2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Dellandrea5:13
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen10:50
xG 0.49–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell10:13
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Pysyk8:46
xG 0.15–0.48 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).