Fri, Jan 22, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 03 | 114 | 12 | 332 |
| ANA | 018 | 19 | 111 | 00 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56COLJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 0:47ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:20COLMikko RantanenAssists: Bowen Byram, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 7:42ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Danton Heinen, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:38COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Cale Makar · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:59ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:18COLMartin Kaut: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:21COLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:32ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:09COLBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:00COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57ANAMaxime Comtois: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:31ANAHampus Lindholm: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 8:59COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:45ANARickard Rakell: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:50
xG 0.88–0.66 (57%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Kadri – Saad – Nichushkin7:13
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Bellemare – Jost – Kaut4:57
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Donskoi – Compher6:01
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar10:04
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram5:00
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Byram3:51
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Heinen7:40
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Terry – Steel – Comtois5:24
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Jones10:51
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney12:15
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Hakanpää13:39
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm15:36
xG 0.91–0.77 (54%)attempts 17–23goals 1–1
- Welinski – Larsson9:18
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).