Sat, Jan 23, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 18 | 05 | 117 |
| BOS | 110 | 26 | 310 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:09BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 1:14PHIKevin HayesAssists: Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 2:30BOSCraig SmithGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 17:50BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic, Craig Smith · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 4:13BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 7:59BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Jakub Zboril · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 13:33BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:55PHIMark Friedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:37BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:54PHIMark Friedman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 8:37BOSAnders Bjork: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Bunnaman – Farabee5:36
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny2:21
xG 0.08–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Aube-Kubel – Lindblom3:12
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Bunnaman – Patrick – Farabee4:10
xG 0.02–0.08 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Friedman8:55
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Friedman2:31
xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Braun – Gustafsson9:33
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic10:38
xG 0.51–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk11:40
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork9:01
xG 0.10–0.18 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Studnicka11:52
xG 0.05–0.43 (10%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Carlo14:19
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Lauzon – McAvoy14:15
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Miller – Zboril16:00
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).