Sat, Jan 23, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 17 | 315 | 533 |
| VAN | 05 | 08 | 212 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Brett Kulak, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 11:42MTLCorey PerryAssists: Ben Chiarot, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 3:50VANElias PetterssonAssists: Jordie Benn, Brock Boeser · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:08VANNils HoglanderAssists: Nate Schmidt, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:07MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 12:44MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Josh Anderson · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 17:06MTLJoel EdmundsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:09VANTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:09MTLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:23MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P1 17:59MTLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:13VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:15VANJay Beagle: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:51MTLNick Suzuki: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:04MTLTyler Toffoli: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:04VANBo Horvat: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:07VANNils Hoglander: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 17:45VANTanner Pearson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:45MTLJake Evans: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Toffoli – Kotkaniemi10:17
xG 0.89–0.18 (84%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki9:24
xG 0.70–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:30
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans7:39
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov13:57
xG 0.99–0.43 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot14:49
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Petry – Edmundson8:50
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Hoglander4:16
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–3goals 1–2
- Sutter – Virtanen – MacEwen3:46
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Virtanen – Pettersson4:47
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sutter – MacEwen – Hoglander2:16
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Schmidt12:07
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Hughes9:29
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Juolevi2:36
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).