Sun, Jan 24, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 6, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 214 | 314 | 17 | 635 |
| STL | 17 | 011 | 213 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:13LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 18:36LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:25LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Dustin Brown · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 8:22LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe, Kale Clague · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 17:18LAKLias AnderssonAssists: Anze Kopitar, Matt Roy · Backhand, 0.15 xG5–1
- P3 6:01STLBrayden SchennAssists: Colton Parayko, David Perron · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 6:49STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Slap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 19:43LAKDrew DoughtyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:31STLTorey Krug: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40STLRyan O'Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:23LAKLias Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:23STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:08LAKLias Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:37STLMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
- P3 3:09LAKLias Andersson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:28STLRobert Thomas: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Iafallo8:22
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Vilardi – Andersson6:52
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Athanasiou – Lizotte5:28
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Amadio – Grundstrom – Moore8:33
xG 0.30–0.69 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:05
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Clague13:49
xG 0.50–0.88 (36%)attempts 17–14goals 2–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Kyrou6:59
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
- Perron – Schenn – Schwartz4:07
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev5:13
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Bozak – Thomas5:05
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko9:42
xG 0.89–0.51 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Scandella – Faulk8:30
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn2:40
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).