Sun, Jan 24, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 219 | 210 | 438 |
| WPG | 116 | 06 | 216 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:41WPGAdam LowryAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 0:21EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:18EDMKyle TurrisAssists: Zack Kassian, James Neal · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 13:54WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Paul Stastny, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 15:07WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 16:55EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 19:59EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:13WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- P2 5:45WPGDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P2 17:49EDMJames Neal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:07EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:57WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:35
xG 1.66–0.32 (84%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Neal – Turris – Kassian2:57
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid2:41
xG 0.12–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Archibald – Shore3:19
xG 0.05–0.18 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:52
xG 2.66–0.34 (89%)attempts 28–14goals 2–0
- Larsson – Koekkoek12:52
xG 0.33–1.07 (24%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
- Russell – Barrie15:37
xG 0.32–1.39 (19%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Appleton10:30
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Harkins – Gustafsson3:45
xG 0.09–0.05 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers12:30
xG 0.73–0.81 (47%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:15
xG 0.21–1.61 (12%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:35
xG 0.99–0.86 (54%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Forbort – Pionk15:37
xG 1.18–1.26 (48%)attempts 20–22goals 0–2
- Forbort – Morrissey2:29
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).